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THE FUTURE OF ENERGY: FOSSIL  FUELS VS. RENEWABLES

 

Which energy forms will be the cheapest in the future? Natural gas, wind or solar?

When will renewable energy overtake fossil fuels, without subsidies?


Does this need a high carbon price?

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EI New Energy's "Energy Cost Report" is based on our proprietary levelized cost of energy (LCOE) model, with the methodology explained in the report. It provides updated 2013 data and an overview of historical and projected trends over 2000-50. Some of the report's fascinating conclusions are:

  • Solar PV is the technology to watch. It's already moving to retail parity, and will reach wholesale parity from around 2030. There is still huge potential for efficiency improvements and cost reductions in solar panels.
  • The four cheapest technologies in 2050 will be onshore wind, geothermal, hydro and solar. Onshore wind and hydro are already the most competitive forms of new electricity in Europe, without subsidies.

  • Cheap prices will keep natural gas at the top of the pack in the US until 2030. But onshore wind will soon overtake coal there, and will outperform gas after 2030.

  • Carbon capture and storage (CCS) would allow coal to retain an important role. CCS would also have a beneficial impact on overall electricity costs, despite the massive investment required.

  • Renewables will not drive up the overall cost of electricity generation.

  • Carbon prices will drive these changes, but regulation could play an equivalent role. Some of the changes would occur regardless.


About EI New Energy


EI New Energy helps you understand and navigate the changes under way in the global energy industry, with a focus on renewables, carbon and transportation. It deciphers trends and makes connections, rather than simply reporting news and prices. If you are looking for strong, analytical coverage of the industry's future, this is the publication for you! For more details click here.


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These key questions for the global energy industry -- and many more -- are addressed in Energy Intelligence's EI New Energy "Energy Cost Report," a comprehensive, data-based analysis of changing patterns in the cost of conventional and new forms of electricity generation from 2000 to 2050.