Elections around the world this year could steer the pace and depth of the energy transition — and not just in the US.

Rising Mideast geopolitical tensions have highlighted oil sector vulnerabilities. While markets have weathered recent Red Sea disruptions, a Strait of Hormuz closure would have much greater impact. Energy Intelligence sees such a scenario as a black swan event, but parallel disruptions would have lasting impacts on energy markets and the global economy. In this special Risk Research report, Energy Intelligence analyzes the potential oil and gas impacts of a transit disruption. Alternative transit routes, stocks and spare capacity are among key tools to help adjust to disruption. In a worst-case scenario, oil prices could climb over $150/bbl. In gas, the market disruption would be equivalent to the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.