Announced low-carbon spending by major oil and gas companies was $9.1 billion in Q1’24, less than half the level seen in the final quarter of 2023. The latest data from Energy Intelligence's Low-Carbon Investment Tracker, accompanying the recently published report, covers investments, acquisitions and initiatives announced or approved through the first quarter of 2024.

Announced low-carbon spending by major oil and gas companies was $9.1 billion in Q1’24, less than half the level seen in the final quarter of 2023. The ongoing sluggish activity is further evidence of a slowdown in low-carbon investments from the peaks seen during 2021 and 2022. Low-carbon power generation is the largest source of announced spending, accounting for more than 90% of spending in Q1’24, while European Majors announced almost the entirety of new low-carbon spending this quarter.

Energy Intelligence sees ongoing momentum behind the pace and trajectory of the low-carbon transition, despite multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. These have weighed on, but not derailed, the transition in recent years. Our core view – that the transition continues to gather momentum – is reinforced. Drivers (policy and technology) outweigh the drags (political and electoral uncertainties). But we will be closely watching the outcome of critical elections this year for potential review. Our updated base case scenario – now called “Momentum” – is proving more rapid than many expected, but still looks set to fall far short of Paris emissions goals.

Low-carbon spending by oil and gas firms totaled $63 billion in 2023, but – at 40% below 2022 levels – confirmed a broader slowdown. The latest data from Energy Intelligence's Low-Carbon Investment Tracker, accompanying the recently published report, covers investments, acquisitions and initiatives announced or approved through the end of 2023.

Low-carbon spending announced by oil and gas firms totaled $63 billion in 2023, well down on 2022, according to Energy Intelligence’s Low-Carbon Investment Tracker. Recent quarters signal an evolving industry investment landscape, as company strategies shift. European Majors remain most active, but their share of tracked activity fell. While some have stuck with their renewables-focused approach, others (notably Shell) sharply curtailed new announced investments in 2023. Activity elsewhere is growing fast, led by Adnoc, which announced a surge of new investments, especially around COP28. The mix of investments by technology is evolving too. Renewable power remains the largest area of tracked activity, but new announcements fell back, while CCS saw continued strong interest. New hydrogen investments fell in 2023, only picking up in Q4’23.

Electric Vehicle (EV) sales look set to continue their fast growth out to 2040, led by rapid uptake in China, and spurred on by supportive policy and cheaper batteries. This report presents three updated EV adoption scenarios, covering five key global markets. We have revised up projections for EV sales – notably in China – across all scenarios. In our Core case, EVs outsell other autos by 2030, and exceed 40% of the total fleet by 2040. In all three scenarios, the conventional vehicle fleet in key markets is forecast to peak by 2030. Obstacles could still slow EV uptake, including supply chain risks, EV charging limitations, potential political reversals, and lingering consumer doubts. The oil demand impact of EVs is quickly becoming more real. Across all scenarios, total auto fuel demand in key markets peaks by 2027, before falling. In our Core case fuel demand falls back to 2019 levels by 2030.

Batteries are critical to the low-carbon transition, to electrify transport and support the growing share of renewables in power grids. Demand for battery storage – the focus of this Technology Monitor – will grow fast, driven primarily by EV adoption, and accelerated by advances boosting cell performance, density and longevity. Battery costs fell sharply in the last decade and are set to fall further – supporting wider adoption. Evolution of lithium-ion cathodes continues to drive performance gains, but as needs for different applications vary, technologies will diverge. Newer options like sodium-ion and solid-state batteries could revolutionize performance and costs. Scaling up global battery supply faces hurdles, including constraints on critical minerals, but most challenges look likely to ease by 2030. While most oil and gas firms have avoided investing in the electricity space, some are expanding in lithium and battery production, and in stationary storage.

Announced low-carbon spending by oil and gas firms partially rebounded to $14.4 billion in Q3’23, bringing the total year-to-date to $41.4 billion. The latest data from Energy Intelligence's Low-Carbon Investment Tracker, accompanying the recently published report, covers investments, acquisitions and initiatives announced or approved up to the end of Q3'23.

Announced low-carbon spending by oil and gas firms partially rebounded to $14.4 billion in Q3’23, bringing the total year-to-date to $41.4 billion, according to Energy Intelligence’s Low-Carbon Investment Tracker. After recent sharp declines, new low-carbon activity has now stabilized – but at a lower level than seen in 2022. This partly reflects strategic shifts at European Majors, with tracked activity at Shell falling sharply so far in 2023. Low-carbon power generation is in the spotlight, with offshore wind facing challenges. Yet renewable power remains the leading area of tracked new activity by value. Q3’23 also saw strong interest in CCS and carbon removal, led by Mideast and US firms, but new reported activity in hydrogen is more muted. Adnoc has led activity by Mideast NOCs, advancing CCS projects and announcing other new initiatives, as COP28 turns the spotlight on the UAE.

With many firms now focused on CCS projects as part of their decarbonization strategies, some host governments are examining licensing opportunities for carbon storage sites. To date, only a handful of governments have made formal carbon storage awards through both direct applications and formal licensing rounds. Recent awards in the UK and Texas suggest emerging competitive strategies among the US and European majors, regional independents and select specialist firms, which will now be regularly tracked in the Carbon Storage Licensing Monitor.