Global economic growth is straining under multiple sources of pressure. Trade tensions, high tariffs and geopolitical risks are increasing uncertainty and forcing governments to reorder priorities and fend for their energy security, military protection and supply chain resilience.
Join Energy Intelligence as we discuss our latest macroeconomic outlook report, examining regional economic forecasts, as well as the impact of tariffs, inflation, fiscal policy and other macro drivers impacting demand.
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Energy in the Age of Protectionism
  • China’s macroeconomic outlook is growing gloomier at a time of major internal structural change, with key energy market implications. Trade tensions, its flagging property sector and slowing infrastructure investment are undermining China’s traditional economic foundations, while its low carbon technology prowess cannot cover these losses. These dynamics are weighing heavily on oil demand, as reduced freight demand, rising EV adoption and the slowing economy take their toll, with petrochemical feedstock usage unable to pick up the slack. Accordingly, we see Chinese oil demand growth barely topping 100,000 b/d this year and next. While natural gas demand prospects are brighter, they are not immune from these trends.
    Thu, Jul 17, 2025
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  • US President Donald Trump is advancing his protectionist trade agenda. Tariffs for many countries without an agreement are rising beyond those proposed in April, while many deals include rates above pre-Trump levels. Washington is also putting forward new sectoral tariffs and expanding their use to advance geopolitical goals. We expect extended uncertainty as questions about the duration and scope of tariffs swirl. The impacts – including increased inflation and lower job growth – will rise over the course of the year. Many deals aim to boost US energy exports and investment, but the viability of these provisions is questionable. Other policies, like steel tariffs, will weigh on the sector.
    Thu, Aug 14, 2025
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