Some Opec-plus countries have begun positioning themselves for revisions to production baselines, due to be used for new quotas from next year.

This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment this quarter and beyond. The inauguration of Canada’s 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion and Indonesia elections are examined in depth. South African elections, a new president in Senegal and rising tensions in Kazakhstan between the government and operators are additional concerns. Middle East conflicts and their energy sector implications are a key geopolitical risk focus. Other geopolitical developments include Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and the end of Venezuelan sanctions relief. Meanwhile, policy support for hydrogen and carbon capture and storage are favorable transition risk drivers.