Latest developments highlight firmer momentum behind the transition
Energy Intelligence sees ongoing momentum behind the pace and trajectory of the low-carbon transition, despite multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. These have weighed on, but not derailed, the transition in recent years.
Our core view – that the transition continues to gather momentum – is reinforced. Drivers (policy and technology) outweigh the drags (political and electoral uncertainties). But we will be closely watching the outcome of critical elections this year for potential review.
Our updated base case scenario – now called “Momentum” – reflects gradually growing momentum this decade, led by faster technology deployment and policy support. The Momentum pathway is proving more rapid than many expected, but still looks set to fall far short of Paris emissions goals.
In our Downshift case, patchy progress falters due to multiple obstacles. The Velocity case assumes a self-supporting cycle of robust policy support and technological progress. Net Zero scenarios have loomed large in debate, but look unlikely to play out.
You can learn more about the “Energy Transition Macro Outlook” report – and our Energy Transition Service – in the executive summary.
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The “Energy Transition Macro Outlook” report is part of the Energy Transition Service which helps guide the energy industry through the low-carbon transition. We offer an unparalleled combination of intelligence, data, independent analysis and direct client engagement. The Energy Transition Service helps energy firms, investors and governments understand how the low-carbon energy transition is unfolding, with a focus on key technologies, costs, market developments and policy drivers.
